Tuesday, February 17. 2009

Geographers Suggest Bin Laden's Probable Location

The research by Thomas Gillespie and John Agnew of the University of California-Los Angeles is reported in the MIT Internation Review. In short the pair and other team members used a variety of information inputs, including night imagery, electricity use and other data, along with some profiling principles, to suggest three different compounds in Parachinar, a town 12 miles from the Pakistan border, where Bin Laden may be hiding.

USA Today reviews the process:

Essentially, the study generates hiding-place location probabilities. It starts with "distance decay theory," which holds that the odds are greater that the person will be found close to where he or she was last seen.

Then the researchers add the "island biographic theory," which maintains that locales with more resources — palm trees for tropical birds and electricity for wealthy fugitives — are likelier to draw creatures of interest.

"Island biographic theory suggests bin Laden would end up in the biggest and least isolated city of the region," Gillespie says, one among about 26 towns within a 20-mile distance of Tora Bora.

Well-known geographic-profiling expert Kim Rossmo of Texas State University in San Marcos, suggests the researchers are on to something but may be a bit overconfident: "It's important to think outside the box, and this is an innovative idea worth more pursuit. However, the authors are much too certain of their conclusions."

- UCLA News release
- USA Today