More Confidence in Your Traffic Data

Today’s press release from Traffic.com has one thing I’ve not seen before in our industry: geospatial information with a confidence rating. This being traffic data, the confidence information relates to the “accuracy” of the predictions.

The Traffic.com Predictive Engine applies statistical pattern-matching algorithms to current real-time conditions and historical travel models to estimate future speeds and drive times. Based upon the characteristics of each data sample used to calculate drive times, a ‘Confidence Factor’ is derived providing a percentage level of accuracy for each travel time value. With this sophisticated model, application developers will benefit from unparalleled control of end-user content in consideration of extended geographic coverage.

Getting more data, or in this case metadata, is generally thought of as a good thing. The exciting part is how Traffi.com’s customers will (1) monetize it (via advertising, subscriptions or a mix) and (2) present it to end users. All three business models are in use (NAVTEQ, which now owns Traffic.com offers subscriptions only; Microsoft uses ads and subscriptions, for example) and it remains to be seen which if any, are the long term winners. Of more interest to me is how the new confidence information will be presented the end user. Will it be predigested so the end user sees only the end results of how company algorithms munch the data? Will end users have some say in how the confidences are used? I’d suggest that will be parallel to how in some routing apps end users can request to “stay off the highway”. Will some providers offer complex interfaces to let end users manipulate the data in a very granular fashion? The folks at Traffic.com are curious, too, based on a conversation with them last week.

The other interesting point to consider: algorithms to use the confidence information may well need to change from geography to geography. Experience may show that urban data (of which there is more historical information) has more or less accurate confidences, than say rural data.

Finally, if you ever wondered: Your current speed is not the best predictor of your future speed on a route. Density and volume are! Happy travels.

Off Topic: The First PR from Another World

At Directions Media we get lots of press releases. Most are tightly tied into the geospatial technology arena. Some are not. Today we recieved a first: our first PR from Second Life. Perhaps I’d have run it if it were about mapping, LBS or GPS in Second Life, but it was about a new Flip Book Museum (I kid you not!) Actually, it was a clever marketing piece for a real world business Flippies.com that makes flip books.

Mostly, I wanted to mark this date in the calendar as I’m not sure at all how Second Life, its news or its technology will impact geospatial, communictions or any other technologies or our society.

Update:A reader forwarded this announcement that Circuit City, in partnership with IBM will be opening a store in Second Life next week. I was unable to find the announcement on the Circuit City website newsroom, but it’s all over the press (BusinessWeek, etc.), so I guess it’s real. Dell apparently already has a presence in Second Life.

Ok, so consider:

If your avatar is walking down the street in Second Life, passed Circuit City, will it get LBS messages about sales at Circuit City? Won’t avatars want to shop “online” like we do here in First Life? Should we be considering the implications of this Second Life for mapping/cartography etc.? Yes. In particular consider this outgrowth of IBM/Cicruit City exploratoin in Second Life:

The companies are also researching the potential to use the interactive features to enhance customer service. For example, consumers could access 3-D product demonstrations rather than read through product manuals, and could determine how to find and fix problems themselves through virtual representations of their devices or systems.

Thinking about Second Life and its implications makes my brain hurt!